Recovery in airline capacity and airfares in Africa

26 African markets under review

The state of airline capacity and average ticket prices (ATPs) has been reviewed for 26 markets across Africa, which have been outlined in the map (see PDF).

The recovery in seat capacity has been established using data from OAG (the Official Airlines Guide) for January 2019 and 2024. This means capacity can therefore be compared to its pre-pandemic (2019) level.

The development of airfares during 2023 has been based on BCD transactional data, which covers the first nine months of the year. The outlook for airfares relies on forecasts from IATA (International Air Transport Association), which produces its figures using a US dollar-based index. This means the numbers may include some exchange rate effects, arising from the conversion of ticket prices from local currency to dollars.

There are no simplemessages to be taken from the analysis, other than that the situation in Africa is complex. The recovery ineach country has been subject to differences in prevailing local conditions. While some markets have emerged as tourism hotspots, others have found themselves embroiled in civil conflict. Each market needs to be considered on its own merits.

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