Understanding and preparing for potential risks is crucial for businesses and travelers alike. Crisis24, a BCD marketplace partner and leading platform for travel risk management, crisis consulting, and personal protection solutions, has published its 2025 Global Risk Forecast. The forecast provides a comprehensive analysis of key trends and events expected to impact organizations in the coming year. Supported by expert intelligence and innovative risk maps, the in-depth report aims to enhance organizational resilience through strategic insights. The below summary represents the views of Crisis24 alone.
Aviation: Navigating conflict zones
The aviation industry faces significant challenges due to ongoing and emerging conflict zones. Airlines must navigate around these areas to ensure safety, leading to airspace closures, longer journey times, and increased costs for travelers. The Middle East and Ukraine are particularly notable regions where conflict will impact airline operations in 2025.
Operational and security challenges have prompted some airlines to cancel services to the Middle East, concerned about risks to their navigational equipment. These risks can stem from military operations or deliberate interference. As conflicts spread, commercial flights may face more electronic interference, increasing congestion in surrounding airspace and straining air traffic control systems. Consequently, travelers may experience flight cancellations, extended flight times, and higher airfares.
Cybersecurity: Rising threats in a digital world
Cybersecurity remains a critical concern amid geopolitical tensions, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), and the advent of quantum computing. The report highlights the increasing use of technology to undermine critical infrastructure, with state-sponsored cyberattacks becoming more intense and widespread.
In 2024, attempts to compromise the U.S. defense sector, utilities, internet providers, and transportation systems underscored the vulnerability of global infrastructure. As AI becomes more mainstream, new cybersecurity challenges emerge, including sophisticated social engineering, automated attacks, and identity theft. Additionally, criminals are accumulating encrypted data now, planning to decrypt it in the future using quantum computing.
To combat these threats, companies must invest in robust cybersecurity measures, including technology, training, and crisis management. Cloud security and third-party risks remain priorities, with a push for more regulation and government oversight to protect data exposure. Proactive cybersecurity will distinguish good business practices from bad ones.
Environment: Adapting to climate change
Climate change continues to exacerbate the scale, duration, and intensity of extreme weather events, impacting travel and business operations. Rising global temperatures lead to heavier rainfall, increased flooding, and more frequent wildfires. These changes put additional pressure on already strained infrastructure and pose significant global health threats.
High temperatures, record rainfall, and extreme weather events are becoming the norm. Travelers and businesses must prepare for possible disruptions and adapt to minimize the social, physical, and financial impacts of climate change.
Stakeholders, from individuals to multinational organizations, must collaborate to assess necessary changes and commit to strategies that enhance resilience. While adapting to climate change incurs costs, these are offset by the long-term benefits of avoiding disruption and damage, as well as saving lives.
Health: Conflict-induced public health crises
Conflict zones around the world are creating severe public health crises. Healthcare infrastructure has collapsed, vaccination programs have halted, and infectious diseases are surging. These effects can be global, transmitted by displaced populations, impacting regional and international public health systems.
Limited access to clean water, food, and sanitation facilities promotes waterborne and foodborne diseases in conflict zones and refugee camps. Malnutrition is another critical issue, exacerbated by the “weaponization” of water availability, contributing to outbreaks of diseases such as cholera.
Disrupted healthcare provision, interrupted vaccination programs, poor sanitation, displacement, and overcrowding increase vulnerability to infectious diseases. Armed conflicts create new health challenges while authorities already struggle to manage existing needs. Patients, including travelers, with chronic and noncommunicable diseases will find it harder to access healthcare provision in conflict zones and neighboring areas.
Maritime: Persistent disruptions in the Middle East
Maritime disruptions in the Middle East are expected to persist in the medium term. Attacks have forced shipping companies to divert services around southern Africa, increasing costs and adding to supply chain challenges. This situation is unlikely to change in 2025.
Despite airstrikes and maritime protection forces from the U.S., U.K., and E.U., attacks have continued. Risks of escalation remain, and more indiscriminate attacks could prompt further diversions away from the Red Sea.
Maritime services in the eastern Mediterranean could face disruption, too, potentially affecting local supply chains and offshore energy infrastructure. Services to and from Syria, Türkiye, and Cyprus could also be impacted
Preparing for the future
The 2025 Global Risk Forecast by Crisis24 offers invaluable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By understanding these key trends and preparing accordingly, businesses and travelers can enhance their resilience and navigate the complexities of the modern world.
For a deeper dive into these insights and more, download the full report.
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