In a short Q&A, Frangeul outlines what’s ahead for air travel following these actions, including implications for:
- Flight routes and travel times
- Fuel costs
- Travel’s overall recovery
Which routes are most affected?
In the Intercontinental sector, routes between Europe and Northeast Asia — mainly Japan, Korea, and China — will be the most affected by the closure of Russia’s airspace for European carriers.
In addition, travel between Russia and Europe for the majority of carriers operating these routes will be affected by the ban on Russian carriers in Europe and the similar ban on 27 European carriers from flying to Russia.
Will the Russia-Ukraine war further slow business travel’s recovery?
From a mid-term to long-term perspective, it’s still too early to understand the full impact of this war.
Short term, we’re not anticipating that this will slow down travel’s recovery. Europe to Asia was one of the intercontinental travel sectors that experienced significant passenger traffic contraction in 2021 due to COVID-19-related border restrictions in several Asian countries; and that’s still affecting recovery.
In addition, Asian carriers are not impacted by the latest measures closing off access to Russia’s airspace and will still be able to operate with their standard intercontinental routing.
Will flights be longer?
Long diversions will be required for airlines operating between Europe and Northeast Asia. The carriers will need to find alternative routes to avoid Russian airspace. Flight times could potentially increase by around 20% (from Europe to Tokyo, for example) by taking a route south of the restricted airspace. Stops may be added on routes that previously were nonstop.
Will costs go up because of the need for more fuel on the reroutes?
Fuel costs will increase due to longer routing. That will be a challenge for airlines, especially in a context of the increase in jet fuel prices over the past year (+60% in the last 12 months). Airlines might be tempted to pass on this additional cost to clients by raising fuel surcharges in a very near future.