Crisis24 released its 2025 Global Risk Forecast, an in-depth report analyzing key trends and events expected to affect organizations in the coming year. This comprehensive forecast, supported by expert intelligence and innovative risk maps, helps businesses prepare for potential crises.
As a leading platform specializing in travel risk management, crisis consulting, and personal protection solutions, Crisis24 aims to enhance organizational resilience through strategic insights. The following report summary represents the views of Crisis24 alone.
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Key risk trends according to Crisis24
Aviation
Protracted conflict will impact air travel
Conflict zones mean airspace closures and increased risk to flights, and result in longer journey times and higher costs for travelers
Conflict zones in aviation
To ensure they operate safely, airlines take care to avoid operating over and near conflict zones. As well as Ukraine, the Middle East will also impact airline operations in 2025. In addition to flight diversions, passengers must deal with flight cancellations, longer flight times and increased (fuel) cost. Longer term, regional connectivity will be impacted.
Interference
Operational or security challenges have prompted some airlines to cancel services to the Middle East. In particular, they’re concerned about the risks of interference with their navigational equipment. These can be the unintentional consequences of military operations in a flight’s vicinity or could be deliberate. Any geographic spread of conflict will likely see commercial flights face more electronic interference.
Flight disruptions
Navigating around conflict zones increases congestion in the surrounding airspace and strains air traffic control systems. The increased flight distances resulting from airlines avoiding conflict zones increases their operating costs (and eventually airfares). Faced with extended flight times and challenges securing airport slots, some existing flight schedules may be unsustainable. Travelers will have fewer flights to choose from and may need to seek alternative routings.
Cybersecurity
Cyber insecurity is increasing amid geopolitical, AI and quantum computing developments
Need for robust cyber protection of critical infrastructure
Conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East and competition between the West and China for global influence have seen cybersecurity become a victim of collateral damage. Technology is increasingly used to undermine critical infrastructure. While cyberattacks on vital services are not new, they’re becoming more intense and widespread and increasingly directly state-sponsored.
During 2024, attempts were made to compromise the U.S. defense sector, utilities, internet providers, transportation and other critical systems. The security of the global internet infrastructure remains exposed, with undersea cables proving to be easy targets. Other critical infrastructure remains poorly protected. As it becomes increasingly digitized, critical infrastructure finds itself more exposed to cyberattacks. In a worsening geopolitical context, expect state-backed sabotage efforts to ramp up in 2025.
As AI becomes mainstream, new threats emerge
In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) has become an integral part of the digital economy. But this has raised new challenges for cybersecurity. Sophisticated social engineering, automated attacks, identity theft and the spreading of misinformation are among the ways AI has been misused.
Criminals may also be accumulating vast amounts of stolen encrypted data now and planning to decrypt it at some point in the future. They’re waiting for the vastly expanded analytical power of quantum computing to become available, as the technology is expected to make the most complex of today’s encryption standards obsolete. Steal the data today, decrypt it later.
The cybersecurity industry is being actively encouraged to gradually transition towards post-quantum solutions to minimize the future risks and costs arising from data thefts happening today.
More cybersecurity investment needed
Faced with an expanding array of cyber threats, companies must invest more in cybersecurity. As well as technology, this should include training and crisis management.
Cloud security and third-party risks remain a priority. Expect a push for more regulation and government oversight to protect data exposure. Businesses will face pressure to invest more in compliance programs and align cybersecurity with best practices, standards and regulations.
Proactive cybersecurity will be seen as the difference between good and bad business practices.
Environment
Time to adapt as a more extreme climate becomes the norm
Effects of climate change
Climate change is exacerbating the scale, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Travel and business operations are exposed to their effects. Rising global temperatures are leading to heavier rainfall and an increased risk of flooding. Elsewhere, warmer and drier weather has led to an increase in wildfires.
Climate change has also been linked to increased storm intensity. Many aspects of our day-to-day lives are impacted. Climate change will increase the pressure on infrastructure that’s already under strain from population growth, rural-urban migration and increasing demand.
Climate change will also worsen food and water security challenges. And it presents a significant global health threat, both directly (heatstroke in high temperatures, injury during flooding) and indirectly (increased disease transmission, poor air quality). Post traumatic stress and other mental health issues may also result from exposure to extreme weather events.
High temperatures, record rainfall and extreme weather events are now common and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Travelers and businesses must prepare and be alert for possible disruptive events.
Adapting to the new norm
Mitigating the ongoing effects of climate change can only take you so far. Individuals and organizations must also adapt to minimize its social, physical and financial impact. This means adjusting to both the actual and expected impacts. Changes must be made to limit potential damage and maximize the benefits that may arise from any related opportunities.
As climate change effects are far-reaching, stakeholders ranging from individuals to governments and multinational organizations must be involved to assess how best to make the necessary changes and commit to a strategy to implement them.
Improved information will help in the development of contingency plans, policies and practices that protect personnel, assets and reputations against the effects of climate change. Artificial intelligence can help to enhance early warning capabilities. But hard measures, such as improved flood defenses, and soft measures, such as appropriate hazard insurance, can also reduce climate change impacts and deal with their consequences.
There will of course be a cost associated with adapting to climate change, but this should be offset by the costs of disruption and damage that are avoided in the long-term, as well as saving lives. Putting in place contingency plans and insurance policies appropriate for a more extreme climate will also offer huge benefits in the future.
Health
Conflict is creating public health crises around the world
In conflict zones, healthcare infrastructure has collapsed, vaccination programs have halted, and infectious diseases are surging. The effects can be global, transmitted by displaced populations, impacting regional and international public health systems.
Conflicts impact public health
War has caused public health crises in countries around the world, potentially impacting as many as 1.8 billion people. In affected areas, healthcare needs rise as access plummets. As well as the immediate casualties, public health faces longterm consequences.
Widespread population displacement
War will be a primary driver of population displacement in 2025. More than 117 million people were displaced by war in 2023. Neighboring countries, to which they flee, often struggle to accommodate them, with local healthcare systems suffering immense strain. Incidence of infectious diseases will rise, with refugees accommodate in overcrowded camps with poor sanitation.
Limited access to food, clean water, sanitation
Much-reduced access to clean water, food and sanitation facilities risks promoting waterborne and foodborne diseases in conflict zones and refugee camps. Malnutrition will be another critical issue. The “weaponization” of the availability of water will contribute to outbreaks of diseases such as cholera.
Burden of disease worsens
Disrupted healthcare provision, interrupted vaccination programs, poor sanitation, displacement and overcrowding increase the vulnerability to infectious diseases of people from conflict zones.
Armed conflicts create new health challenges, while authorities already struggle to manage existing needs. Patients (including travelers) with chronic and noncommunicable diseases will find it harder to access healthcare provision, both in conflict zones and in neighboring areas.
Healthcare system disruption
Hospitals located in war zones are often put out of action, with the survivng facilities overwhelmed. Active combat, territorial control by opposing factions and violence against health and aid workers will hinder the delivery of muchneeded healthcare. Attacks on medical facilities will likely continue to impede healthcare provision in 2025.
Mental health impact to be long-lasting
The psychological effects of today’s conflicts will be felt for many years to come. Healthcare and aid workers will be particularly vulnerable, suffering relentless stress from their work and daily exposure to the conflicts themselves.
Travelers and organizations working in or near conflict zones will face increased risks of injury, exposure to infectious diseases, mental health challenges, travel restrictions, the need to evacuate at short notice and limited access to essential supplies. If planning to operate in such locations, extensive additional preparation is a necessity.
Maritime
Maritime disruptions in the Middle East to persist in the medium term
Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden
Attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis have compelled shipping companies to divert services around southern Africa, increasing their costs and adding to supply chain challenges. This is unlikely to change in 2025, with the Houthi threat expected to cause significant disruption in and around the Red Sea.
While the U.S. and U.K. have launched airstrikes against the Houthis and the E.U. and U.S. have set up maritime protection forces around the Red Sea, Houthi attacks have continued, albeit with a lower intensity.
Risks of an escalation by either side remain, and an intensification of Houthi attacks could become more indiscriminate. More shipping companies would respond with diversions away from the Red Sea.
Eastern Mediterranean and Iran
Maritime services in the eastern Mediterranean could be vulnerable to disruption, should tensions between Israel and Lebanon escalate. But the effects are unlikely to spread beyond the two countries. There could be some local disruption to supply chains. Offshore energy infrastructure could also be targeted.
Maritime services to and from Syria, Türkiye and Cyprus could be impacted, but the presence of military forces from major powers with interests in the region should limit the dangers to shipping. They may, however, be exposed to GPS and other navigational and communication service disruption.
The risks will escalate if Iran becomes more directly involved in regional conflict. Its control over the Strait of Hormuz gives it the power to disrupt global energy supplies by limiting access to key oil and gas hubs in the Gulf. With around one third of global gas and a quarter of global oil supplies passing through the Strait, the implications for world energy prices would be severe. In the past, Iran has resorted to harassing or seizing vessels or attacking them with drones.
More about Crisis24
The BCD Marketplace provides access to vetted, third-party technologies that solve unique needs and supports our clients’ evolving travel programs. Crisis24 is one of our founding Marketplace partners, joining in 2014. As a leader in the travel risk management category, Crisis24 provides critical expertise and resources that help businesses navigate an increasingly complex global landscape. Our partnership powers best-in-class intelligence, security solutions and risk mitigation strategies.
Questions? Contact Morten Bundgaard, Director Partners and Integrations, BCD Travel
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