Published: June 2025
Produced by Research & Intelligence
By Mike Eggleton, Natalia Tretyakevich, Melina Sibaja
In BCD’s latest Travel Market Report, we explore the current state of the global airline industry, reveal how travel buyers use data to optimize programs, and provide insights into traveler payment habits in Southeast Asia.
Download your report to learn about:
– The latest IATA outlook for global airline revenue, traffic, and profitability
– Airline start-up and failure trends, including regional challenges and drivers
– Travel buyer perspectives on the value and challenges of working with travel data
– Key data sources, analysis habits, and AI usage among buyers
– Recommendations for traveler payments across Southeast Asia
Global airlines industry outlook
Outlook 2025
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has updated its outlook for the global airline industry, which it last published in December 2024. In its June 2025 update, it has lowered its expectations for total airline industry revenue this year from $1 trillion to $979 billion.
Rather than the 4.4% growth previously forecasted, it now believes airline revenues will increase by just 1.3% in 2025. This represents a marked slowdown from the 6.3% growth estimated for 2024.
Some regions’ airlines will post stronger revenue growth, with Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East likely to deliver increases of 3–4% in 2025. Global revenue growth will be held back by the Americas. IATA expects revenue in Latin America to dip by 1.3%, but it anticipates a 3.4% decline in North America.
IATA has also adjusted its profitability forecasts, but the changes appear more benign. While it has revised down its forecast for net profit growth from 16% to 11%, this partly reflects base effects, with 2024’s profits proving to be higher than previously expected. IATA has only slightly lowered its profit forecast for 2025, from $36.6 billion to $36.0 billion. In light of minimal revenue growth, profits are set to hold up rather well, supported by lower fuel prices and rising load factors.
Regional prospects for 2025
Africa
Despite high operational costs, sustained demand for air travel should support 8% growth in traffic. However, net profits are expected to remain flat compared to 2024.
Asia Pacific
Following strong 17% growth in 2024, a 9% traffic increase is projected for 2025. Visa relaxations will support further growth. Net profits are forecast to rise by 23%, significantly higher than the previously predicted 13%.
Europe
Low-cost carriers are expected to drive 6% growth in traffic. A stronger euro is likely to lift profitability. Net profits are projected at $11.3 billion — higher than the $9.6 billion recorded in 2024, but lower than the earlier $11.9 billion forecast for 2025.
Latin America
Proposed VAT on airline tickets in Brazil is expected to negatively impact performance in the region’s largest market. Profits are forecast to decline by 15%.
Middle East
Economic growth should support a 6.4% increase in airline traffic. However, delivery delays of wide-bodied aircraft may limit the region’s ability to capitalize fully on demand. Net profits are expected to rise slightly by 1.6%, reaching $6.2 billion.
North America
A slowdown in U.S. economic growth is expected to impact airlines in the region. While demand may be flat, net profits are still projected to grow by 10% — a notable reduction from the previously forecast 17% increase.
Update on global headline traffic
North America weighs on global performance in 2025
Global airline traffic increased by 8% year-over-year in April, overturning the weak results seen in the previous two months. This restored growth in air travel to the 7–10% trend established over the eight months leading up to January 2025. However, year-over-year comparisons were likely boosted by the later timing of Easter, which moved from March in 2024 to April in 2025.
International traffic was the main driver of growth in April, with demand increasing by 10.8%, significantly outpacing the 3.3% rise in domestic travel. This surge in activity improved airline occupancy, with load factors rising by 1.7 percentage points to 84.1%.
Year-to-date figures provide a clearer view of market development, minimizing the effect of Easter’s timing shift. So far in 2025, global airline traffic has grown by 6.0%. All regions have performed well—except North America, where traffic has remained flat. In contrast, other markets have experienced growth between 6% and 9%.
Regional perspective
During the first four months of 2025, domestic air travel expanded by only 2.0%. However, this average masks strong results in key markets such as Brazil, India, and Japan.
In contrast, Australia and China posted lower growth, and the global average was dragged down by a 1% decline in domestic air travel in the U.S. market.
The weakness of the U.S. market is clearly reflected in the regional numbers.
The timing of Easter contributed to strong traffic growth in April across most regions. Even the mature European market saw an 8.3% year-over-year increase. Despite this, demand in North America expanded by less than 2% year-over-year.
Airline start-ups and failures
Fewer new airlines started and fewer failed in 2024
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 28 new airlines started operations in 2024. At the same time, 19 ceased flying. Both numbers were at their lowest levels in a decade, but 2024 still marked the fourth consecutive year with net growth in airline numbers.
The 28 airline startups in 2024 was even lower than the 31 that took to the skies in 2020, the first year of a global pandemic. Airline startups have been trending down since 2021’s peak of 58, a number which was inflated by reorganizations associated with the impact of the global pandemic, as multiple airlines restarted operations following restructuring. Re-emergence from bankruptcy protection will continue to boost start-up numbers in 2025, with Azul, Gol, Spirit Airlines, and Thai Airways among the affected carriers.
Since 2024, Asia Pacific and Europe have been the leading regions for airline launches, as strong economic growth and market liberalization, respectively, have promoted start-ups. As a mature and consolidated market, North America saw only a relatively small number of new entrants.
The low number of airlines starting up in 2024 is largely the result of three factors:
Geopolitical challenges, including conflicts in Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, have increased the headwinds facing air travel. What’s more, new entrants must deal with stricter regulatory demands and operational complexity, adding time and cost to start-up.
Global inflation, rising operating expenses, and elevated borrowing costs have made it harder for new airlines to secure the investment and resources needed to launch operations.
Supply chain disruptions continue to limit the availability of aircraft and spare parts, making it hard for new airlines to resource their operations.
Travel data and data analysis: travel buyer survey
Travel buyers tell us how they interact with data to improve their programs
In this survey, we looked at the significance of travel data and explored the ways travel buyers can interact with data to improve their travel programs. Our findings are based on an online survey of 197 travel buyers worldwide, conducted in April 2025.
Our findings, at a glance
Travel program priorities
More than eight in 10 travel buyers consider data analytics extremely or very important. Duty of care has lost its top position among travel program priorities, being overtaken by cost control and policy compliance.
When we talk about travel data, buyers see collaboration with TMCs and suppliers on their travel data and improved data quality as their major priorities.
Travel data sources
Their TMC is a major source of travel data for most travel buyers, according to nine out of 10. Around two-thirds collect and analyze data from payment and expense solutions and from online booking tools.
Challenges
Travel buyers consider data fragmentation and the need to make travel data proactive as their biggest challenges.
They believe traveler satisfaction, trip success rate and friction are among the key performance indicators that are not tracked well enough.
Travel buyer portrait
While two-thirds of travel buyers interact with their data on a weekly or daily basis, one in 10 do so quarterly or less often.
Almost three-quarters believe they possess the skills and experience needed to interact with data, though 40% interact with travel data only when absolutely needed.
44% love working with data and could spend hours analyzing numbers, while 56% still prefer to leave working with data to the professionals.
60% regularly check their dashboards and analyze new data, and 49% appreciate help with effective data visualization.
Value provided by travel data
Data adds value to travel programs in different ways. Most buyers agree that travel data is essential for supplier negotiations, improving policy compliance and optimizing spend.
Two-thirds of travel buyers adjust their travel policies based on data, at least occasionally. A similar share use pre-trip/booked data to make necessary modifications before the trip, with one in five frequently taking action.
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Three-quarters of respondents do not use AI for collecting, analyzing and reporting travel data. Of those who do, most deploy the tools provided by their employer. Saving time is the most valuable benefit offered by AI.
Find out more
We’ve highlighted just some of the key findings from our traveler survey around hotels. You can find out much more detail in the full report.
Paying in Southeast Asia: at a glance
How travelers should pay for their daily needs when on the road in Southeast Asia
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In a soon-to-be-published report, we took a closer look at the payment options for travelers visiting six countries in Southeast Asia. Here’s some of our key findings and recommendations.
INDONESIA
- Contactless payment can help reduce fraud, but the transaction limits are fairly low.
- If bringing in cash, make sure the banknotes are in a good condition.
- Have small value notes on you for tipping and minor purchases.
- If taking a taxi, agree the fare in advance.
MALAYSIA
- Card acceptance varies significantly across Malaysia.
- Be prepared to pay by either card or cash, with Grab as a useful backup.
- Make sure you have small denomination notes on you as retailers won’t always have change.
- Many shops tend to prefer cash or Grab over card payment.
PHILIPPINES
- Make sure you have pesos on you before heading outside the major cities.
- When changing money, bring your passport with you.
- Avoid public transportation and hail a Grab instead.
SINGAPORE
- Singapore is heavily cashless. Card or mobile payment is accepted almost everywhere.
- Grab is not just a ride-hailing app. It’s worth having to make QR-based payments.
- The MRT app is also useful for getting around Singapore.
THAILAND
- You will need cash as it remains the top choice for payment.
- Expect to have to enter your PIN when making card payments.
- Don’t be tempted by tuk tuks. Use ride-hailing or public rail services to get around big cities.
VIETNAM
- Card and digital payment is growing, but you will need cash on you.
- You can only arrive with a small amount of local currency. Bring in a strong currency to exchange for Vietnamese dong.
- Doublecheck how much you’re paying, as dong amounts include a lot of zeros.
Want to know more about payment?
Check out our Principles of Payment education series to learn more about global payment options and how to best equip your travelers to cover expenses on the road.
Exploring Payment Options provides information on how to create the ideal payment mix.
Virtual Payments dives deeper into the newest form of payment available for travel programs.
Want more ways to ensure payment acceptance in your travel program?
Here are some tips for working with your suppliers:
- Use the power of your program to influence supplier acceptance policies.
- Communicate your preferred methods of payment and ensure suppliers are ready to accept them in the markets where your travelers do business.
- Understand how foreign transaction fees are managed to reduce unanticipated fees.
Share your thoughts
Do you have any questions or comments regarding this report? Please email Mike Eggleton to share your thoughts.