What travel leaders should take away from the 2026 Outlook

In 2026, travel leaders should brace for an environment where some managed travel program fundamentals – risk, price, policy and sustainability – may shift faster than expected. BCD Travel’s Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook forecasts that the year ahead will be defined by data transparency, proactive planning and smarter supplier strategy.

Takeaways from the Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook

1. Six risks to watch in 2026

Interconnected risks won’t just complicate business travel in 2026 – they’ll expand the overall risk landscape companies must navigate to keep business travelers safe and operations resilient.

• Weather disruptions
• Geopolitical instability
• The visa and border-policy “whiplash”
• AI-accelerated misinformation crises
• Unpredictable illness patterns
• Congestion and availability constraints during mega-events

Organizations should expand crisis playbooks to account for multiple simultaneous disruptions – a capability highlighted in the Outlook. Traveler Security Program Assessments and real-time incident monitoring are among the tools programs should prioritize to strengthen resilience.

2. Airfare: Modest growth still demands strategic intervention

Global airfares are projected to rise an average of 1.1%, with regional differences shaping complexity. Africa and Asia’s higher inflation – combined with pressure from NDC-driven fare packaging – will make 2026 pricing models more challenging than they appear.

Key concerns identified in the Outlook include declining contract value, fuel surcharges and program leakage – all requiring stronger sourcing strategies.

3. Hotel rate growth is tracking upward – and some markets may accelerate

Global hotel rates are forecast to rise 4.9%, with variation driven by labor costs, tourism surges and tax shifts. Markets such as Japan, Turkey and the Middle East are expected to see the steepest increases.

Travel programs should consider earlier negotiation cycles to secure inventory and mitigate Advanced Daily Rate (ADR) escalation.

4. Car rental cost pressures are broadening

Repair delays, acquisition costs and city surcharges continue to push prices upward within the 2–4% forecast range. Programs should evaluate break-even points between rental, rideshare and taxi in high-cost markets – comparative modeling is recommended in the Outlook.

5. Sustainability is operational – not aspirational

The maturity gap highlighted in the report remains significant: only 9% of companies apply carbon fees and 15% invest in SAF. Expect sustainability to move deeper into operational planning, with greater emphasis on audit-ready data and credible reporting frameworks.