A soft global economy may bring hard realities for travel – that’s the headline for 2026. But the business travel landscape is far from stagnant. BCD’s new Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook shows that despite likely slow economic growth, managed travel is shifting in ways that demand sharper strategy, smarter data and stronger resilience.
Fragile environments will shape corporate budgets
Oxford Economics projects global GDP growth at just 2.6% – the weakest pace since 2009 (excluding 2020) – with inflation easing only gradually from 3.4% in 2025 to just above 3%. That fragile environment will shape corporate budgets, yet business travel continues to be mission-critical in many sectors.
Top 6 travel risks of 2026
Layered on top of this economic uncertainty are six major risks shaping travel in 2026:
- Extreme weather and climate disruption
- Regional tensions and conflicts
- Border policy shifts
- Cyberattacks and AI-driven misinformation
- Illness and disease outbreaks
- Accommodation and transport pressure during mega-events
The message is clear: 2026 will reward proactive programs, not reactive ones. As Jorge Mesa, senior director of Travel Risk Management at BCD, notes, “Organizations face unprecedented challenges – but travel managers don’t have to face these alone. Our traveler security assessments, real-time intelligence and destination monitoring help keep operations running even during uncertainty.”
Peace of mind starts here
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Air travel: Modest inflation and deeper challenges
Global average ticket prices are expected to rise only 1.1%, driven largely by lower inflation in the Americas – especially North America. Other regions will see stronger airfare inflation, led by Africa (2.5%) and Asia (2.0%).
Setting price movements to one side, the real battleground for travel programs lies in five trends shaping airline strategy, identified by BCD’s Advito consultancy:
- Declining value of corporate contracts
- Cost-avoidance tactics
- Rising fuel surcharges
- Blanket NDC pushes
- Ongoing program leakage
Olivier Benoit, SVP at Advito, emphasizes the need for analytics: “The right data helps travel managers stay ahead of shifting airline pricing strategies – and reduce leakage, carbon impact and missed savings.”
Data quality you can count on
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Hotels: Real pricing power returns
Global hotel rates could increase 4.9% in 2026, with variation driven by staffing costs, leisure demand, and tax changes:
- Middle East: +8%
- Latin America: +6.4%
- Africa, Asia, Europe: 4–6%
- North America and Southwest Pacific: 2.2–2.6%
“Nearly 5% global rate growth demands a proactive strategy. Stay by BCD Travel uses data, sourcing power and Hotel Price Assurance to offset rising costs and deliver measurable savings,” says Miriam Moscovici, vice president of Product Planning & Intelligence at BCD.
You can’t find new hotel savings using the same old tricks
Stay by BCD Travel makes the difference through our Global Hotel Program, spend management tactics, Dynamic Performance Management and smarter analytics.
Ground transportation: 2–4% inflation ahead
Rental car pricing continues to rise due to repair costs, acquisition challenges, surcharges and parking fees. In many markets, travelers will increasingly turn to ride-hailing and taxis to balance cost and convenience.
Sustainability: Accountability is non-negotiable
Sustainability has moved from values-driven to value-driving. Benchmarks from The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) show industry maturity at just 1.4/5, with only:
- 9% applying carbon fees
- 15% investing in SAF
BCD’s Sustainability Solution simplifies what’s typically complex: credible reporting, traveler engagement and investment in decarbonization – without disrupting business continuity.
Sustainable travel programs can cut costs
The future of sustainable travel isn’t just about reducing carbon – it’s about driving measurable business impact.
Bottom line: 2026 is a year for smart decision-making
The travel environment is too volatile for passive management. Programs that rely on robust intelligence, a mature risk framework and data-driven supplier strategy will outperform.
Download BCD’s full Travel Market Report: 2026 Outlook to explore regional insights, risk mitigation guidance and pricing forecasts.
